What PJM Reported
PJM's July 14 report says the 2028/2029 auction cleared 138,317.8 MW UCAP through the Reliability Pricing Model. Fixed Resource Requirement entities committed another 10,863.8 MW UCAP, bringing total procured capacity to 149,181.6 MW UCAP.
That total was 6,831.3 MW UCAP below the RTO Reliability Requirement. PJM reports a 14.4% RPM installed reserve margin and a 14.7% total reserve margin, versus the 20% target used to support the one-day-in-10-years reliability criterion.
High Prices Persisted Even As More Capacity Cleared
Every modeled LDA cleared at the $325/MW-day auction cap, with no constrained LDAs. The clearing price was 2.5% below the prior auction's $333.44/MW-day cap, while PJM says cleared RPM capacity increased by 3,733.2 MW UCAP.
The improvement did not close the resource gap. PJM's reliability requirement rose from 152,400 MW to 156,013 MW UCAP, including a 1,374.5 MW increase in forecast load that PJM says was driven largely by additional large loads. Only 524.7 MW UCAP of new generation and uprates cleared.
What The Result Does Not Tell You
A $325/MW-day RTO result is not an account-level bill quote. Supplier terms, PLC, zone, tariff class, utility riders, hedges, and load shape determine how capacity costs reach a commercial account. PJM also cautions that its $16.4 billion cleared-MW-times-price indicator is not the same as total cost to load.
2028/2029 Auction Result At A Glance
| Item | Official Value | Buyer Read |
|---|---|---|
| RTO clearing price | $325/MW-day | Every modeled LDA cleared at the auction cap, down 2.5% from $333.44/MW-day for 2027/2028. |
| RPM capacity cleared | 138,317.8 MW UCAP | PJM cleared more RPM capacity than in the prior auction, but not enough to meet the reliability requirement. |
| RPM plus FRR capacity | 149,181.6 MW UCAP | This total remained 6,831.3 MW UCAP below PJM’s RTO Reliability Requirement. |
| Total reserve margin | 14.7% | PJM reports a total reserve margin 5.3 percentage points below the 20% target. |
| New generation and uprates | 524.7 MW UCAP | The auction cleared 317.1 MW from new generation and 207.6 MW from uprates. |
| Auction value indicator | $16.4 billion | PJM says cleared MW multiplied by clearing price was unchanged from the prior auction; this is not the same as total cost to load. |
Why The Reliability Gap Matters
PJM says a shortfall does not mean the grid will necessarily fail to serve load in 2028/2029. It means the system would operate with slimmer reserves and greater risk. This is the second consecutive auction to clear more than one percentage point below the installed reserve margin target.
PJM's current tariff language references three consecutive qualifying auctions for a Reliability Backstop Auction trigger. Buyers should therefore track the active stakeholder process and future auction results rather than treating this second shortfall as proof that every backstop step is automatic or complete.
Commercial Buyer Action List
| Decision Area | Current Status | Next Step |
|---|---|---|
| Capacity pass-through exposure | Review contract language | Confirm whether capacity is fixed, passed through, reconciled later, or embedded in a utility or supplier rider. |
| PLC and peak management | Model account exposure | The auction price is regional; each account’s capacity obligation still depends on load shape, PLC, zone, tariff, and contract terms. |
| Demand response | Evaluate economics carefully | High capacity values can support flexible-load economics, but CSP terms, metering, penalties, dispatch rules, and availability still govern net value. |
| Reliability backstop | Watch PJM follow-through | This is the second straight material reserve shortfall; track the stakeholder process rather than assuming the tariff trigger has already been reached. |
What To Watch Next
- PJM's Reliability Backstop Procurement and Connect & Manage stakeholder work.
- Whether incremental auctions, new entry, uprates, imports, or forecast revisions narrow the 2028/2029 gap.
- Supplier and utility filings that translate wholesale capacity costs into specific tariffs or contract charges.
- Account-level PLC and demand-response economics before the June 2028 delivery year begins.
Next buyer check
Map the official auction result to contract language, PLC, tariff treatment, and flexible-load capability.
Sources: PJM, “2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report,” July 14, 2026; PJM Capacity Market (RPM) delivery-year archive; PJM Inside Lines auction-opening and price-collar notices.