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NYISO • New York • CommercialApr 20, 2026

2026 New York Commercial Energy Cost Forecast: NYC vs. Upstate

The Bottom Line (New York, April 2026)

New York commercial electricity costs in 2026 split along a sharp geographic line. ConEd Zone J (NYC/Westchester) commercial customers are seeing effective all-in rates of ~23.4¢/kWh — roughly 109% above the upstate average of ~11.2¢/kWh served by NYSEG, National Grid, Central Hudson, and RG&E. The delta is driven almost entirely by delivery charges, transmission surcharges for CHPE and grid modernization, and Zone J’s structural capacity premium — not supply costs.

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23.4¢
NYC (ConEd)
Zone J all-in commercial
11.2¢
Upstate Avg
NYSEG / National Grid
~109%
NYC Premium
Cost gap vs. Upstate

Average Home & Commercial Energy Costs in New York — March/April 2026

EIA’s most recent state-level data pegs the New York commercial electricity average at 18.15¢/kWh and the residential average at 24.1¢/kWh statewide. Those averages, however, mask one of the widest intra-state rate gaps in the country. NYC and the lower Hudson Valley pay a dramatic premium, while buyers in Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and the Southern Tier pay rates closer to national averages.

2026 Rate Snapshot by Utility Territory

Utility / ZoneRegionCommercial All-In (2026E)Residential All-In (2026E)
ConEd (Zone J)NYC & Westchester23.4¢/kWh33.1¢/kWh
O&R / PSEG Long IslandLong Island / Rockland21.8¢/kWh29.5¢/kWh
Central Hudson (Zone G)Hudson Valley14.6¢/kWh21.4¢/kWh
NYSEG (Zones A/C/E)Southern Tier / Finger Lakes11.4¢/kWh17.8¢/kWh
National Grid UpstateBuffalo / Syracuse / Albany10.9¢/kWh17.2¢/kWh
RG&ERochester11.2¢/kWh17.4¢/kWh

Why the NYC Premium Is Growing, Not Shrinking

Three structural forces are pushing the Zone J commercial premium higher through 2026 and beyond:

  • CHPE surcharge ramp: The Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) is commercial-delivery-active in 2026, and cost recovery is being socialized through delivery charges that fall disproportionately on Zone J and Zone K ratepayers.
  • Local Law 97 compliance retrofits: Building electrification driven by LL97 is raising load on an already-constrained Zone J network, accelerating T&D capex and the associated rate-base recovery.
  • Capacity market scarcity: NYISO Zone J’s locational capacity requirement keeps capacity clearing prices elevated regardless of what happens upstate.

Why Upstate NY Remains a Relative Bargain

Upstate commercial buyers benefit from a fundamentally different cost structure: a larger share of generation is Niagara/St. Lawrence hydro and Ginna nuclear (both low-marginal-cost), load growth is slower, and capacity requirements are less constrained. Even with CHPE and grid-modernization riders, the upstate all-in commercial rate is projected to stay under 12¢/kWh through 2026, making cities like Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester meaningfully more competitive for industrial and data-center siting than they have been in a decade.

Commercial Procurement Action Items

  • NYC & Long Island buyers: Re-examine supply contracts with a 24–36 month horizon. The delivery side of the bill is where the pain is — most of which cannot be avoided through supplier switching. Focus on load-shaping, demand-response enrollment, and on-site solar + storage.
  • Hudson Valley buyers: Central Hudson commercial customers sit in the middle. They pay a Zone G premium but escape the worst of Zone J. Monitor the CHPE cost-allocation docket closely — if FERC reallocates more cost to lower zones, this gap could widen.
  • Upstate buyers: Lock longer-dated retail supply where possible (24 months+). NYISO capacity costs rise in 2027–2028 and suppliers will start pricing that into new offers over the next two quarters.
  • Multi-site operators: Intra-portfolio load shifting (e.g., moving batch compute or cold storage upstate) is increasingly economical. At 12¢ upstate vs. 23¢ NYC, a 1 MW continuous load represents ~$96k/month in differential cost.

Source: EIA Form 861; NYPSC Electric Rate Reports; NYISO OATT filings; utility tariff schedules.

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