Con Edison’s Multi-Year Rate Trajectory
Con Edison’s approved rate plan establishes three years of escalating costs: +3.5% in 2026, +3.2% in 2027, and +3.1% in 2028. The increases fund a $17 billion infrastructure modernization including grid hardening, clean energy integration, and substation replacements across NYC and Westchester County.
The 650 MW Summer Shortfall
NYISO projects a 650 MW capacity shortfall in Zone J for summer 2026 due to delays in two offshore wind projects:
- Empire Wind (816 MW): Behind on offshore construction milestones.
- Sunrise Wind (924 MW): Supply chain delays in turbine delivery.
Without this 1,740 MW, NYISO may activate emergency demand response and rely on the Champlain Hudson Power Express (1,250 MW, currently in Q1 testing) to fill the gap.
The Structural Supply Crisis
NYC’s supply problem runs deeper than wind delays. Since 2019, 4,315 MW have retired while only 2,274 MW were added — a 2:1 gap driven by CLCPA emissions mandates. NYC hit 27.39¢/kWh in December 2025, and wholesale prices nearly doubled in 2025 to $74.40/MWh. Winter Storm Fern drove real-time prices to $1,942/MWh in January.
What NYC Commercial Buyers Should Do
- Lock in ESCO supply rates: The current sub-$60/MWh wholesale dip presents a potential buying window for fixed-rate contracts.
- Explore demand response: Zone K programs offer $8.00/kW-month reservation payments. Similar programs exist for Manhattan commercial loads.
- Budget for compound increases: Con Ed’s three-year trajectory means ~10% cumulative by 2028 — on top of NYISO wholesale movements.
- Monitor CHPE commissioning: The 1,250 MW line could improve Zone J pricing if fully operational this year.
Source: Con Edison 2026 Rate Order; NYISO Power Trends 2026; NYISO Reliability Assessment; Modo Energy NYISO Market Data.