Henry Hub 2026 Public Benchmark: Source-Verified Snapshot
Source discipline note: This page now uses only public, linkable benchmark sources. Proprietary bank, consultant, or trading-desk forecasts should be used only when your team has licensed access to the underlying note and can preserve the source record.
EIA's May STEO lowered the 2026 Henry Hub benchmark from the April outlook while raising Lower 48 production expectations. That combination matters for buyers because it separates a softer national commodity benchmark from regional basis, utility delivery and electricity-capacity costs that can still move in the opposite direction.
Commercial and industrial procurement teams still need a defensible reference case. The table below separates source-reported public benchmarks from market-context inputs that require a timestamped quote or settlement pull before they are used in a buying memo.
| Benchmark | Public source | May 2026 value | How to use it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub natural gas price | May 2026 STEO | $3.50/MMBtu for 2026 projected; $3.18/MMBtu for 2027 projected | Base-case public planning benchmark, not a delivered local gas quote |
| Lower 48 marketed natural gas production | May 2026 STEO | 118.9 Bcf/d for 2026 projected; 124.0 Bcf/d for 2027 projected | Supply-side pressure check for Henry Hub and storage balances |
| U.S. LNG exports | May 2026 STEO | 17.0 Bcf/d for 2026 projected; 18.2 Bcf/d for 2027 projected | Demand-side pull from export terminals and global LNG conditions |
| End-October working gas | May 2026 STEO | 7% above the previous five-year average projected | Winter-readiness and storage-cushion context |
| Weekly storage | EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report | Point-in-time weekly release | Near-term injection/withdrawal confirmation |
| NYMEX Henry Hub strip | CME/NYMEX market data | Timestamped settlement required | Executable market context, not a static article fact |
What the Public Data Says
- Production is easing the 2026 benchmark. EIA now expects Lower 48 marketed natural gas production to average 118.9 Bcf/d in 2026 and 124.0 Bcf/d in 2027, with this year's forecast 1.1 Bcf/d higher than last month.
- Storage is a stabilizer, not a guarantee. EIA expects above-average injections during the April-October injection season and projects end-October inventories 7% above the previous five-year average.
- LNG exports remain structurally important. EIA projects U.S. LNG exports at 17.0 Bcf/d for 2026 and 18.2 Bcf/d for 2027, while global prices remain elevated amid Strait of Hormuz disruption.
- Forward prices still need a timestamp. NYMEX values move daily. Any procurement memo should cite the exact strip, close date, and basis assumption used for the quote.
What This Page No Longer Claims
- No unsourced proprietary desk table. Named bank or consultant forecasts are excluded unless the article can point to a stored, reviewable source.
- No single consensus price. A simple average of unavailable proprietary calls can look precise without being auditable. Use EIA, the timestamped strip, and account-specific basis instead.
- No supplier quote substitute. Public benchmarks help structure the question. They do not replace a live quote, contract review, or delivered-basis calculation.
How to Use This Benchmark in Procurement
- Build three cases: Use the EIA STEO case, a timestamped NYMEX strip case, and a delivered-basis case for the facility's local utility or pipeline zone.
- Separate Henry Hub from basis: A low national benchmark can still produce expensive delivered gas in constrained regions such as New England or downstate New York during winter.
- Model winter separately: Even when the calendar-year benchmark looks moderate, January and February can carry the highest asymmetric risk for gas-indexed power contracts.
- Basis matters as much as Henry Hub: For Northeast buyers (Transco Z6 NY, Algonquin), basis can double the effective delivered cost during cold snaps. Track the basis strip separately.
What to Watch This Quarter
- EIA Weekly Storage Reports: Injection pace through Q2 and Q3 2026 sets the winter setup. Below-forecast injections would weaken the storage cushion EIA now expects.
- LNG utilization: Golden Pass Train 1, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and global LNG spreads matter because export pull can tighten the domestic balance even when U.S. production grows.
- Hormuz and global gas prices: EIA says global LNG prices remain elevated during the Strait of Hormuz disruption. U.S. buyers should watch whether the global premium keeps U.S. LNG terminals near maximum utilization.
- Forward strip updates: Refresh NYMEX and basis assumptions whenever a supplier quote is requested, not only when a new monthly outlook is published.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2026; EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report; EIA Henry Hub monthly spot series; CME Group Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract reference.