MISO Coal Generation Hits 3-Year Low as Solar Surges to 55% of Demand Growth
Coal-fired generation in the MISO footprint hit a 3-year low in January 2026, while solar generation accounted for 55% of total demand increase from 2023 to 2025. Natural gas and wind resources are filling the remainder. MISO's long-term modeling projects 413 to 501 GW of installed capacity by 2045, with solar, natural gas, and wind dominating the future fuel mix. For commercial and industrial buyers in the Midwest, this transition is creating new pricing volatility patterns — gas-correlated evenings and near-zero solar hours during midday.
The Coal Decline Accelerates
MISO's coal fleet, once the backbone of Midwest electricity generation, is in structural decline. January 2026 saw coal-fired output drop to its lowest level in three years, driven by retirements of aging plants that can no longer compete with cheaper natural gas and the rapidly falling cost of solar.
This isn't a temporary dip — MISO's own long-range models project the transition accelerating through 2045, with installed capacity growing to between 413 and 501 GW but with a fundamentally different fuel mix: solar, natural gas, and wind replacing coal and nuclear as the dominant generation sources.
Solar: The New Growth Engine
The most striking data point is solar's dominance: 55% of all demand growth in the MISO footprint from 2023 to 2025 was met by solar generation. This is reshaping the hourly pricing curve:
- Midday (10am-3pm): Solar flood drives clearing prices toward — and sometimes below — zero. Commercial facilities with flexibility can shift load to these hours for significant savings.
- Evening ramp (4pm-8pm): As solar drops off and gas ramps up, prices spike. This is the new "peak" for MISO, similar to CAISO's duck curve pattern.
- Night/morning: Wind generation provides baseload, but prices correlate strongly with Henry Hub natural gas prices.
Procurement Opportunity
The growing solar-gas price divergence creates a strategic opportunity for commercial buyers. Facilities that can shift 20-30% of their load to the 10am-3pm window can capture $0.01-0.02/kWh savings vs flat-rate contracts. This is especially relevant for data centers, cold storage, and manufacturing with thermal storage capability.
Reserve Pricing Signal
MISO set the Regulating Reserve Demand Curve price at $129.7/MW for March 2026, reflecting the cost of maintaining grid stability as the generation mix becomes more variable. This ancillary service cost flows through to commercial ratepayers as part of the all-in rate.
For energy managers: as MISO's fuel mix shifts, watch for increasing ancillary service charges in your supply contracts. These costs will rise as the grid requires more fast-responding reserves to balance intermittent solar and wind.