Golden Pass LNG Ships First Cargo — 18 MTPA Changes the Global Gas Game
The Golden Pass LNG terminal in Sabine Pass, Texas — a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%) — is shipping its first cargo in early 2026. With 18 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) of export capacity across three trains, Golden Pass becomes one of the world's largest LNG facilities. For commercial gas buyers, this is a structural demand catalyst: each train consumes approximately 1 Bcf/day of feedgas, tightening domestic supply and supporting Henry Hub prices in the $3.50–$5.00/MMBtu range for 2026.
Train Ramp-Up Schedule
| Train | Capacity | Expected Online | Feedgas Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Train 1 | 6 MTPA | Feb/Mar 2026 | ~1.0 Bcf/day |
| Train 2 | 6 MTPA | June 2026 | ~1.0 Bcf/day |
| Train 3 | 6 MTPA | Dec 2026 | ~1.0 Bcf/day |
| Total | 18 MTPA | Full capacity Q1 2027 | ~3.0 Bcf/day |
Impact on Domestic Gas Prices
Golden Pass will draw approximately 3 Bcf/day of feedgas at full capacity — equivalent to roughly 3% of total U.S. dry gas production. This incremental demand is bullish for Gulf Coast cash markets and is already reflected in forward pricing:
- Henry Hub 2026 range: $3.50–$5.00/MMBtu, supported by LNG export demand despite record production
- Gulf Coast basis: Golden Pass feedgas demand provides localized price support at Sabine Pass and Henry Hub
- Winter 2026-2027: If all three trains are operating during the next heating season, winter gas prices could see additional upward pressure
Global Market Context
Golden Pass arrives during a broader expansion of global LNG capacity. Total LNG supply is projected to reach 472 million tonnes in 2026, a 7% year-over-year increase. This supply wave creates a complex dynamic:
- European demand rising: The phased withdrawal of Russian pipeline gas continues to pull European buyers toward the LNG spot market
- Asian demand rebounding: China and India are expected to increase imports as spot prices ease below 2022-2023 highs
- Oversupply risk: If global demand growth slows, the 7% supply increase could compress margins for U.S. LNG exporters, potentially reducing feedgas draw and easing domestic prices
What Commercial Gas Buyers Should Know
- Fixed-price gas contracts: With Golden Pass adding structural demand, locking in gas supply at current rates provides budget certainty through the ramp-up period
- Basis risk awareness: Buyers on Gulf Coast or Henry Hub-indexed contracts should monitor basis differentials as feedgas demand tightens local supply
- Dual-fuel hedging: Businesses with both electricity and gas exposure should consider coordinated procurement strategies — gas price movements now directly impact power generation costs in PJM, ERCOT, and MISO
Get Your Commercial Gas Rate Assessment
With LNG export demand structurally increasing, understanding your gas procurement strategy is essential.