February 2026 Natural Gas Market Report:
Prices Rising Toward $4/MMBtu
Henry Hub natural gas spot price is $3.13/MMBtu as of 2026-02-23. Commercial gas averages $1.05/therm nationally. 26 states offer competitive gas choice. Compare rates and find suppliers in your state.
Source: EIA API v2 — Henry Hub Spot
Regional Gas Price Snapshot
Verified commercial natural gas prices by major pipeline hub, February 2026.
What is Driving Gas Prices Higher?
1. Record Cold Winter 2025
January 2025 was the coldest month in 37 years nationally. Residential and commercial natural gas consumption surged 11.9% vs the prior year. Storage inventories swung from an 8% surplus entering winter to a 3% deficit by late February. Heating degree days (HDDs) ran 15% above the 10-year average across the Midwest and Northeast.
2. LNG Export Capacity Surge
Two major LNG export terminals came online in late 2024: Plaquemines LNG (Louisiana) and Corpus Christi Stage 3 (Texas). Total U.S. LNG export capacity now exceeds 15 Bcf/d, up from 12 Bcf/d a year ago. This diverts roughly 14% of domestic production to international markets, tightening supply for commercial buyers.
3. Northeast Pipeline Constraints
The Transco Zone 6-NY basis differential spiked to $6.93/MMBtu above Henry Hub during the February cold snap. Limited pipeline capacity into New England continues to create winter volatility, particularly in CT, MA, NH, and RI. Commercial buyers in these states pay the highest delivered gas prices in the continental U.S.
4. Storage Levels: Adequate but Thin
The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report showed 85% capacity entering mid-2025. While within the 5-year range, this leaves limited buffer for a repeat cold winter or production disruptions. If storage enters the 2026-2027 heating season below 90%, expect pre-winter price premiums in October-November futures.
What This Means for Commercial Gas Buyers
- Lock rates before October 2026. Winter futures are already pricing in higher basis premiums. A 12-24 month fixed-rate contract at current levels ($0.85-$1.10/therm depending on state) protects against a repeat cold winter.
- Northeast buyers: hedge aggressively. If your facility is in CT, MA, NH, or NY, basis risk alone can add $0.30-$0.50/therm during cold snaps. Fixed delivery charges are essential.
- Consider dual-commodity procurement. Gas prices directly drive electricity costs in gas-dependent ISOs (ISO-NE, PJM). Locking both commodities with one broker reduces total energy risk.
- Review your LDC delivery charges. In deregulated states, you choose your gas supplier but still pay delivery to the Local Distribution Company (LDC). Make sure your LDC rate class is correct.
Data Sources
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) — February 2026
- EIA Natural Gas Weekly Storage Report
- EIA SEDS API — Commercial Gas Prices by State (2024 annual)
- ICE / Natural Gas Intelligence — Daily basis pricing
- CME Group — NYMEX Henry Hub Futures
Compare Gas Rates in Your State
See current commercial natural gas rates across all 28 deregulated states.