1. Macroeconomic Fundamentals
National commercial energy rates are diverging sharply from underlying wholesale benchmarks. While the Henry Hub prompt month remains relatively suppressed at $3.13, the actual delivered commercial rate across all 50 states averages $10.58/Mcf. This spread is driven entirely by non-bypassable delivery tariffs, pipeline basis risk, and utility rate-casing.
2. Regional Grid Constraints & Signals
The following high-impact events have been flagged by the KilowattLogic intelligence engine this week, categorized by their threat to commercial operating expenses (OpEx).
Long Island Commercial Electricity 2026: Escaping PSEG's Power Supply Charge
Analysis of PSEG-LI's 2026 Power Supply Charge spikes. How Nassau and Suffolk businesses can leverage Zone K deregulation to block-and-index winter volatility.
Texas ERCOT Heat Rates: The Gas-to-Power Correlation Driving 2026 Electricity Costs
Analysis of the ERCOT natural gas-to-power correlation in Texas. Learn how the implied heat rate dictates commercial wholesale electricity prices in 2026.
Industrial Natural Gas Procurement: 2026 Manufacturing Playbook
A 2026 playbook for industrial and manufacturing natural gas procurement. How to execute Block and Index hedges to protect chemical and metals plants.
Permian Basin Associated Gas Production: 2026 Commercial Impact
How record oil production in the Permian Basin drives massive associated natural gas supply. Analysis of new pipelines like Matterhorn Express on 2026 rates.
Golden Pass LNG Ships First Cargo — 18 MTPA Changes the Global Gas Game
Golden Pass LNG begins exports from Sabine Pass, Texas with 18 MTPA capacity. Impact analysis on Henry Hub prices and commercial natural gas procurement.
FERC Rescinds Western Wholesale Electricity Price Cap — What It Means for Commercial Buyers
FERC eliminated the WECC $1,000/MWh soft price cap. Western commercial buyers face new wholesale price volatility exposure across 11 states.
3. Basis Risk & Locational Dynamics
Physical gas constraints in the Northeast continue to create severe pricing anomalies. New York commercial natural gas is currently trading at an equivalent of ~$10.47/MMBtu—a staggering 235% premium over the national Henry Hub benchmark.
This basis blowout is the direct result of restricted pipeline capacity into Zone 6 and the Algonquin Citygate. High-volume industrial users in New York and New England MUST explore dual-fuel switching capabilities or secure long-term basis hedges immediately to insulate against extreme winter price spikes.
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