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Executive BriefingFebruary 23, 2026

Energy Market Pulse: Constraints & Capital Impacts

A synthesized overview of macroeconomic fundamentals, wholesale grid constraints, and basis risk for commercial scale consumers.

The Executive Summary: Henry Hub natural gas is trading at $3.13/MMBtu in steep contango due to LNG export capacity coming online. Commercial electricity markets in ERCOT, CAISO, and PJM are flashing warning signals for Summer 2026 due to extreme localized capacity constraints and retiring generation, severely impacting data centers and heavy manufacturing. Procuring in Q1 is highly advised to lock in forward curves.

1. Macroeconomic Fundamentals

National Gas Avg (Commercial)
$10.58/Mcf
Source: EIA Open Data
Henry Hub Spot
$3.13/MMBtu
Trend: Contango / Steepening

National commercial energy rates are diverging sharply from underlying wholesale benchmarks. While the Henry Hub prompt month remains relatively suppressed at $3.13, the actual delivered commercial rate across all 50 states averages $10.58/Mcf. This spread is driven entirely by non-bypassable delivery tariffs, pipeline basis risk, and utility rate-casing.

2. Regional Grid Constraints & Signals

The following high-impact events have been flagged by the KilowattLogic intelligence engine this week, categorized by their threat to commercial operating expenses (OpEx).

electricitySignal: critical
Market Bias: Bearish (Price Up)

Long Island Commercial Electricity 2026: Escaping PSEG's Power Supply Charge

Analysis of PSEG-LI's 2026 Power Supply Charge spikes. How Nassau and Suffolk businesses can leverage Zone K deregulation to block-and-index winter volatility.

gasSignal: warning
Market Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Texas ERCOT Heat Rates: The Gas-to-Power Correlation Driving 2026 Electricity Costs

Analysis of the ERCOT natural gas-to-power correlation in Texas. Learn how the implied heat rate dictates commercial wholesale electricity prices in 2026.

gasSignal: critical
Market Bias: Bearish (Price Up)

Industrial Natural Gas Procurement: 2026 Manufacturing Playbook

A 2026 playbook for industrial and manufacturing natural gas procurement. How to execute Block and Index hedges to protect chemical and metals plants.

gasSignal: warning
Market Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Permian Basin Associated Gas Production: 2026 Commercial Impact

How record oil production in the Permian Basin drives massive associated natural gas supply. Analysis of new pipelines like Matterhorn Express on 2026 rates.

gasSignal: critical
Market Bias: Bearish (Price Up)

Golden Pass LNG Ships First Cargo — 18 MTPA Changes the Global Gas Game

Golden Pass LNG begins exports from Sabine Pass, Texas with 18 MTPA capacity. Impact analysis on Henry Hub prices and commercial natural gas procurement.

electricitySignal: critical
Market Bias: Bearish (Price Up)

FERC Rescinds Western Wholesale Electricity Price Cap — What It Means for Commercial Buyers

FERC eliminated the WECC $1,000/MWh soft price cap. Western commercial buyers face new wholesale price volatility exposure across 11 states.

3. Basis Risk & Locational Dynamics

Physical gas constraints in the Northeast continue to create severe pricing anomalies. New York commercial natural gas is currently trading at an equivalent of ~$10.47/MMBtu—a staggering 235% premium over the national Henry Hub benchmark.

This basis blowout is the direct result of restricted pipeline capacity into Zone 6 and the Algonquin Citygate. High-volume industrial users in New York and New England MUST explore dual-fuel switching capabilities or secure long-term basis hedges immediately to insulate against extreme winter price spikes.


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