What EIA Confirmed on May 5
EIA’s May 5, 2026 Today in Energy analysis gives the Virginia data-center story a cleaner factual base. The article ties Virginia’s commercial electricity sales growth to EIA-861 annual data, EIA-861M monthly data, EIA-930 hourly load data, and PJM’s 2026 load forecast.
- Virginia commercial electricity sales rose by nearly 30 million MWh between 2019 and 2025.
- Commercial consumption reached 106 million MWh in 2025, up from 77 million MWh in 2019.
- Data centers represented about 26% of Virginia electricity consumption in 2023, according to Virginia Department of Energy material cited by EIA.
- PJM’s Dominion zone winter peak reached 25,413 MW in 2025-26, up 45% from the 2019-20 winter peak.
- Dominion zone summer peak reached 23,905 MW in 2025, up 23% from summer 2019.
The practical read-through is straightforward: this is not only a future interconnection-queue story. EIA’s latest public data shows the load is already visible in reported commercial sales and Dominion zone peak demand.
The Dominion Pipeline Context
Northern Virginia remains the clearest U.S. example of data-center load moving from site-selection issue to grid-cost issue. Dominion has previously described roughly 70 GW of data-center capacity requests in its pipeline, far larger than the utility zone’s measured seasonal peak load.
That comparison does not mean all requested load will energize. It does mean buyers in Dominion territory should treat transmission buildout, contracted demand levels, standby exposure, and PJM capacity pass-through as first-order procurement variables.
Dominion’s Capital Plan
Dominion’s five-year capital plan (2025-2029), as cited in the original publication snapshot, includes:
- $17 billion specifically for data center infrastructure and clean energy transition.
- A $1 billion super high-voltage transmission line dedicated to data center hubs.
- A proposed 1,000 MW natural gas plant in Chesterfield County.
- The 2.6 GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project (~$10 billion), expected to complete by end of 2026.
- Exploration of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) for scalable, carbon-free baseload power.
Those projects sit behind the buyer-facing question: which costs move into base rates, rider charges, demand charges, capacity pass-through, or customer-specific tariff structures?
GS-5: Demand Risk Moves to the Contract
Starting January 2027, Dominion will implement the GS-5 rate class for customers consuming over 25 MW:
- 85% minimum demand charge: Data centers must pay for at least 85% of their contracted distribution and transmission demand — even during off-peak periods.
- 60% generation demand minimum: Generation charges are also subject to a floor, preventing data centers from arbitraging load curves.
- Cost-causation principle: The rate structure ensures data centers pay for the infrastructure they require, rather than spreading costs across residential and small commercial ratepayers.
This is a direct data-center cost-allocation mechanism. It parallels APS’s proposed data-center surcharge in Arizona and Grant County PUD’s unbundled rate strategy in Washington, but the Virginia version matters because it sits inside the largest data-center concentration in the country.
PJM Interconnection Reality
Virginia sits within PJM’s footprint, where the interconnection queue and load forecast are both under pressure from large-load growth. EIA notes that PJM expects the Dominion zone to have the largest absolute increase in summer peak demand from 2026 through 2030, largely because of data-center load.
- New generation takes 4–7 years from application to operation.
- Transmission constraints in Northern Virginia create locational pricing premiums.
- PJM capacity costs remain a key pass-through risk when load growth, retirements, and delayed interconnection timelines tighten regional reserve margins.
What Virginia Commercial Buyers Should Do
- Model GS-5 impact: If your facility exceeds 25 MW, quantify how the 85% minimum demand charge affects your annual electricity cost structure starting January 2027.
- Explore behind-the-meter generation: On-site solar, battery storage, and fuel cells can reduce contracted demand and mitigate minimum charge exposure.
- Watch PJM capacity costs: The record $329/MW-day capacity auction means delivery charges in Dominion territory will rise significantly starting June 2026.
- Evaluate Virginia demand response: With thinning PJM margins, curtailable load in Virginia commands growing premium payments.
For the broader path, continue through the data-center load topic hub and the earlier Dominion tariff primer. This page is now the current canonical update for the May 5 EIA Virginia load data.
Sources: EIA Today in Energy, May 5, 2026; EIA-861 Annual Electric Power Industry Report; EIA-861M Monthly Electric Power Industry Report; EIA-930 Hourly Electric Grid Monitor; PJM 2026 Load Forecast Report; Dominion Energy 2025 Investor Day; Virginia State Corporation Commission tariff materials.