US to Add Record 86 GW of New Generation in 2026: Solar and Batteries Lead the Charge
The United States is projected to add a record 86 GW of utility-scale generation capacity in 2026 — a 62% increase over the 53 GW added in 2025 and the largest single-year buildout in American history. Solar leads at 43.4 GW (50% of all additions), followed by battery storage at 24.3 GW (28%). The remaining capacity comes from wind, natural gas, and a small amount of nuclear. For commercial energy buyers, this wave of new supply is reshaping price dynamics — but the impact is highly market-specific. ERCOT sees midday price suppression from solar; PJM still can't build fast enough to offset retirements. Understanding where the new capacity lands is essential to procurement strategy.
The 86 GW Breakdown by Technology
| Technology | 2025 (GW) | 2026 (GW) | Growth | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☀️ Solar | 28.1 | 43.4 | +54% | 50% |
| 🔋 Battery Storage | 15.0 | 24.3 | +62% | 28% |
| 💨 Wind | 6.2 | 8.1 | +31% | 9% |
| 🔥 Natural Gas | 3.5 | 8.5 | +143% | 10% |
| ⚛️ Nuclear/Other | 0.2 | 1.7 | — | 3% |
| Total | 53.0 | 86.0 | +62% | 100% |
Source: RTO Insider, EIA Electric Power Monthly. 2026 values are projections based on permitted and under-construction projects.
Where the Capacity Lands: Market-Specific Impact
The 86 GW isn't distributed evenly. Impact varies dramatically by market:
- ERCOT: The biggest beneficiary. Texas is projected to add the most solar and battery capacity of any state. The 14 GW of battery storage already installed, plus new solar, is driving midday wholesale prices negative during spring. Commercial buyers with flexible load benefit from time-of-use arbitrage.
- CAISO: California continues to lead in per-capita solar, but curtailment remains a challenge. EDAM (launching May 1) will help by exporting surplus solar to neighboring states.
- MISO/SPP: The wind corridor from Texas to the Dakotas continues to expand. Battery storage co-located with wind farms is the fastest-growing segment.
- PJM: Despite the $11.8B transmission plan, PJM's capacity additions lag behind retirements. New gas-fired generation is the primary addition here, with some utility-scale solar in Virginia and North Carolina.
- ISO-NE / NYISO: The slowest buildout due to permitting constraints, land scarcity, and offshore wind delays. These markets continue to depend on gas-fired generation.
⚡ Expert Insight — KilowattLogic Research
"The 86 GW headline is impressive, but the nuance is in the 'firmness' of the capacity. Solar and batteries — 78% of additions — are intermittent or duration-limited. They suppress midday prices and cover 4-hour peaks, but they don't replace a gas plant that runs at 3 AM on a freezing January night. For commercial procurement, this means: energy prices during solar hours will continue declining (great for index-based contracts), but capacity prices will keep rising because the grid still needs dispatchable resources for reliability. It's a bifurcated market — cheap energy during the day, expensive capacity to guarantee reliability."
Commercial Buyer Implications
In ERCOT and CAISO, 10am-3pm energy prices are increasingly discounted. Index-based contracts that pass through these low prices can significantly reduce your average cost.
24 GW of new batteries shifts cheap solar to evening peaks, reducing the magnitude of afternoon/evening price spikes that drive demand charges.
Energy costs trending down (more supply), capacity costs trending up (reliability premium). Understand both components of your bill separately.
Sources: RTO Insider, EIA Electric Power Monthly, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, ERCOT capacity filings, CAISO quarterly reports. 2026 values are projections based on permitted and under-construction capacity.