Inside PJM's Winter Storm Playbook: How the Grid Operator's Response Evolved from Elliott to Fern
Between December 2022 and February 2026, PJM Interconnection published 49 winter weather bulletins through its Inside Lines platform — covering three named storms that each tested the grid serving 67 million people. Reading them in sequence reveals a remarkable evolution: advance warning time increased from ~24 hours to 5+ days, communication frequency tripled, and generator performance improved dramatically. But the latest storm — Fern — introduced a new variable: a federal emergency order directing data center backup generators to run, signaling that winter preparedness now intersects with America's data center demand crisis.
Storm-by-Storm Comparison
| Metric | Elliott (Dec 2022) | Gerri (Jan 2024) | Fern (Jan 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advance Warning | ~24 hours | 3+ days | 5+ days |
| Communication Frequency | 2-3 bulletins | 8 bulletins | 7 bulletins + daily updates |
| Generator Performance | ~45 GW unplanned outages | Significant improvement | Best performance in cold events |
| Federal Coordination | Post-event only | Pre-event coordination | DOE 202(c) order during event |
| Peak Load | ~135 GW | 130+ GW | 137 GW |
| Price Surge (RT) | $1,000+/MWh spikes | Moderate spikes | Managed within $325 cap framework |
| Aftermath | FERC investigation, $1B penalties | Positive review | Focused on data center policy |
Source: Pattern analysis across 49 PJM Inside Lines winter weather bulletins (insidelines.pjm.com)
The Three Storms — PJM's Own Reporting
Winter Storm Elliott
(December 2022)6 bulletinsKey PJM Bulletins (Primary Sources):
- PJM Declares Conservative Operations Ahead of Winter Storm — Dec 15, 2022
- PJM Operated Reliably Throughout Winter Storm Challenges — Jan 12, 2023
- PJM Releases Winter Storm Elliott Report — Jul 17, 2023
- FERC Approves Winter Storm Elliott Settlement Agreement — Dec 20, 2024
Winter Storm Gerri
(January 2024)8 bulletinsKey PJM Bulletins (Primary Sources):
- Cold Weather Alert Issued for PJM Western Region — Jan 3, 2024
- Extreme Cold Produces PJM Record for Winter Electricity Demand — Jan 22, 2024
- PJM Review: System Performed Well During Winter Storm Gerri — Jan 25, 2024
Winter Storm Fern
(January 2026)7 bulletinsKey PJM Bulletins (Primary Sources):
- Cold Weather Alerts Issued for Jan. 19 and 20 — Jan 16, 2026
- Jan. 25 Update on PJM Cold Weather Operations — Jan 22, 2026
- Jan. 27 PJM Cold Weather Operations Update — Jan 26, 2026
- Jan. 29 Operations Update: Cold Weather Thru Feb. 2 — Jan 29, 2026
- PJM Reviews January Cold Weather Operations — Feb 6, 2026
The Pattern in PJM's Language
Reading 49 bulletins in sequence reveals a clear linguistic evolution in how PJM communicates winter risk:
- Elliott era (2022-23): Reactive language — “declares conservative operations,” past-tense reporting, damage assessment framing
- Gerri era (2024): Proactive language — “issues Cold Weather Alert,” future-tense warnings, pre-positioned messaging
- Fern era (2026): Institutional language — “multi-day operations update,” numbered daily bulletins, federal coordination references
The shift from describing what happened to telling you what's coming is the defining transformation. By Fern, PJM's bulletins read less like emergency dispatches and more like weather service forecasts — calm, structured, and anticipatory.
The New Variable: Data Centers in Winter
Every winter storm between 2020 and 2024 was fundamentally about the same challenge: can gas-fired generators get enough fuel when heating demand and electricity demand compete for the same pipeline capacity?
Fern introduced a new dimension. The DOE Section 202(c) emergency order directing data center backup generators to operate means winter preparedness is no longer just about fuel — it's about the sheer volume of load that data centers add to peak demand. The intersection of PJM's data center crisis and winter reliability is now an explicit grid management challenge.
What This Means for Commercial Electricity Buyers
Strategic Takeaway
PJM's winter preparedness improvements are real and measurable — but they come at a cost. The reforms after Elliott (generator weatherization mandates, increased reserve requirements, performance penalties) are funded through capacity market charges that all commercial and industrial consumers pay. The price of reliability shows up on your bill as higher capacity charges year-round, not as winter price spikes. Understanding this trade-off is essential for procurement strategy.
Understand How Winter Risk Affects Your Rate
Winter preparedness reforms drive year-round capacity costs. See how your PJM zone is affected.