What Changed In The August STEO
EIA lowered its third-quarter Henry Hub forecast because LNG export-terminal maintenance reduced Gulf Coast feedgas demand while U.S. natural gas production remained near record levels. The agency expects the benchmark to average $2.87/MMBtu in 3Q26, 50 cents below the July forecast, and to remain below $3.00 through September.
The annual revisions also moved lower. EIA now forecasts Henry Hub at $3.44/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.31/MMBtu in 2027, down 6.2% and 5.1%, respectively, from the July outlook. Those percentages are EIA's calculations from unrounded forecast values.
| Metric | August STEO | July STEO | Change | Buyer read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub, 3Q26 | $2.87/MMBtu | $3.37/MMBtu | -$0.50/MMBtu | Lower LNG feedgas demand and record production pushed EIA below $3.00 for the quarter. |
| Henry Hub, 2026 annual average | $3.44/MMBtu | $3.67/MMBtu | -6.2% | The annual benchmark moved lower, but it is still not a regional basis quote or delivered supplier price. |
| Henry Hub, 2027 annual average | $3.31/MMBtu | $3.49/MMBtu | -5.1% | The revision reduces the national fuel benchmark without eliminating weather, pipeline, or power-market risk. |
| End-October working gas | 3,985 Bcf | 3,966 Bcf | +19 Bcf | EIA expects a record inventory, 5% above the five-year average, heading into winter. |
Why The Storage Forecast Matters
EIA now expects working gas to reach a record 3,985 Bcf at the end of October, 19 Bcf above the July forecast and 5% above the 2021-2025 average. It also expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $3.03/MMBtu over the final five months of 2026, nearly 50 cents below last month's forecast.
That inventory outlook is a national balance signal. It does not erase New England pipeline constraints, California or Northeast basis risk, utility delivery charges, or customer-specific contract terms. Commercial buyers should compare the monthly forecast with the weekly storage owner because heat, LNG feedgas, production, and regional inventories can change the path before October.
LNG Maintenance Is Part Of The Revision
EIA forecasts U.S. LNG exports at 16.5 Bcf/d in 3Q26, 0.2 Bcf/d below the July outlook, as maintenance at Freeport LNG temporarily affects 2.0 Bcf/d of nominal export capacity. The agency still expects total U.S. pipeline exports to rise as Mexico's Energia Costa Azul terminal and gas-fired power plants ramp.
The procurement implication is conditional: lower near-term feedgas demand adds storage support, but export growth remains a durable Gulf Coast demand channel. Neither the maintenance schedule nor the export forecast establishes a retail gas or electricity price for a specific account.
Commercial Buyer Actions
- Refresh benchmark decks: replace the July 3Q26 Henry Hub assumption with $2.87/MMBtu and label it as EIA's forecast.
- Keep basis separate: a softer Henry Hub forecast does not cap Algonquin, Transco Zone 6, SoCal Border, PG&E Citygate, or other regional differentials.
- Track October refill: compare weekly inventory progress with EIA's 3,985 Bcf endpoint instead of treating the endpoint as already achieved.
- Audit pass-through language: index products can still transmit basis, capacity, congestion, utility, and supplier-margin changes that the STEO does not forecast.
What Not To Infer
- The August STEO does not guarantee that Henry Hub, regional basis, or delivered commercial rates will follow the forecast.
- The record October storage value is a forecast, not a reported inventory level.
- Freeport maintenance and LNG export assumptions can change; this page is not an operating-status guarantee.
- National fuel benchmarks do not establish a customer-specific electricity bill, supplier quote, or savings result.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026; EIA STEO Natural Gas report; EIA STEO text report; EIA STEO Data Browser. Retrieved August 12, 2026.