US Commercial Electricity Rates 2026: EIA Forecasts and Budget Benchmarks
This forecast page preserves the original 2026 budget benchmark of 13.12 cents per kWh. Current-status update: EIA's February 2026 Electric Power Monthly shows U.S. commercial average revenue at 14.37 cents per kWh. Forecast benchmarks and monthly average-revenue actuals are different signals; use the forecast for budget scenarios and the EIA monthly benchmark for current state comparisons.
Executive Impact
- →Budgeting Reality: Energy managers should prepare for a roughly 1.0% to 1.5% macroeconomic increase over their 2025 commercial baselines.
- →Deregulated Strategy: Despite the modest aggregate increase, 2026 forward curves show heightened volatility during summer capacity squeezes. Consider locking in wholesale pricing early before the PJM and ISO-NE summer windows tighten.
- →The Infrastructure Premium: Your base rate might fall, but your transmission and distribution (T&D) charges will likely erase those savings as utilities file aggressive rate cases for new grid builds to handle AI and electrification load.
Navigating the 2026 Commercial Landscape
Trying to plan corporate budgets against a unified "US Average" can be highly misleading. The 13.12 cents per kWh average smooths over a fractured reality where some states are experiencing structural energy inflation while others remain historically insulated.
The core driver heading into 2026 is no longer natural gas prices. Henry Hub futures indicate a well-supplied market through the calendar year. Instead, commercial operators are paying the "Infrastructure Premium." Rate cases across the country reflect billions of dollars in CapEx aimed at replacing aging lines, deploying smart grid tech, and accommodating massive new loads from the data center boom.
Regional Pressure Points
The Northeast Corridor (ISO-NE & NYISO)
Unsurprisingly, commercial operations in New England and New York face the highest structural costs outside of Hawaii and California. We anticipate commercial rates in states like Massachusetts and Connecticut to hover securely above the 20 cents per kWh threshold. The fundamental issue remains winter peaking constraints and a lack of firm natural gas pipeline capacity to fuel peaking generation.
The PJM Reliability Tightening
As PJM addresses thermal generation retirements, their rolling capacity auction reform is flowing directly into the "Demand" side of the commercial bill. Expect higher capacity (PLC) tag costs for facilities that do not actively manage their late afternoon load curves during the summer peaks.
Texas (ERCOT) & The Industrial South
While the underlying energy cost remains highly competitive in states like Texas and the Southeast, the volatility coefficient in ERCOT means operators must be exceptionally careful about index exposure. Fixed-price contracts remain the prudent defensive maneuver against sudden ancillary service price spikes, especially passing into August 2026.