PJM 2027/2028 Capacity Auction Clears at Record $333.44/MW-day
PJM Interconnection\'s 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction (BRA) cleared at a new all-time high of $333.44/MW-day, surpassing the previous record of $329.17/MW-day set in the 2026/2027 auction. This 1.3% increase cements systemic capacity shortages across the grid. For commercial energy buyers, this translates to an estimated 2.8¢ to 3.2¢ per kWh in embedded capacity costs for long-term fixed-price electricity contracts starting June 2027.
Executive Impact
- →Commodity Cost Surge: The $333.44/MW-day clearing price drives a 20-25% baseline increase in total commodity supply costs for commercial buyers in PA, OH, NJ, MD, and IL compared to historic averages.
- →PLC Weighting Escalates: Peak Load Contribution (PLC) management during the 5 Coincident Peak (5CP) hours is now the single largest determinant of commercial electricity costs.
- →Sustained Volatility: With successive back-to-back record capacity tags ($329.17 then $333.44), grid reliability premiums are structurally permanent through at least mid-2028.
Auction Fundamentals & Pricing Deltas
The PJM 2027/2028 RPM Base Residual Auction Results report confirms that 134,478.1 MW of Unforced Capacity (UCAP) cleared the market—a modest 167 MW increase over the 2026/2027 delivery year. Despite the supply offered into the RPM capacity market increasing by 955.8 MW (UCAP) year-over-year, it was insufficient to alleviate the extreme supply-demand tightness characterizing the RTO.
The clearing pattern reinforces a structural shift in grid economics. The administrative price cap dynamics and market power mitigation applications (which applied to all Existing Generation Capacity Resources after failing the Market Structure Test) underscore severe reliability constraints driven by hyperscale data center load growth and baseload thermal plant retirements.
Projected Commercial Rate Impact
EnergyForge Intelligence synthesized the $333.44/MW-day capacity clearing price against current EIA commercial retail rates across the PJM footprint. The embedded capacity cost (converted contextually for a 50% load factor commercial facility) adds an estimated 2.8¢ to 3.2¢ per kWh to fixed-price energy supply components.
| Market / State | Current Rate (¢/kWh) | Projected Embedded Capacity Premium | Supply Cost Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania (PA) | 13.02¢ | +2.95¢ | ~22.6% |
| Ohio (OH) | 12.93¢ | +2.95¢ | ~22.8% |
| Illinois (IL - ComEd) | 13.21¢ | +2.95¢ | ~22.3% |
| New Jersey (NJ) | 15.90¢ | +2.95¢ | ~18.5% |
| Maryland (MD) | 15.46¢ | +2.95¢ | ~19.0% |
*Projections based on EIA Nov 2025 baseline commercial retail rates and a generalized 50% facility load factor. Actual capacity pass-through hinges on a facility's specific Peak Load Contribution (PLC) tag.
Strategic Implications for 2027/2028
The transition from the 2026/2027 delivery year ($329.17/MW-day) to 2027/2028 ($333.44/MW-day) signifies that the market is not correcting; it is sustaining elevated risk premiums. Commercial buyers evaluating procurement options for 2026 and beyond must account for these fundamental cost drivers, either through aggressive PLC management (capacity shedding) or structured energy hedging.
Assess Your Final Supply Costs
PJM capacity prices will heavily influence your next contract. Run a facility assessment to project your fully-loaded PJM supply rates.