CAISO Battery Storage Hits 10 GW Peak — Solar Now Runs 24 Hours
California's grid battery fleet shattered records in January 2026, delivering a peak instantaneous output of 10,030 MW — enough to power approximately 7.5 million homes. With 15.7 GW of installed statewide capacity, the system now routinely extends midday solar generation well into the 6–10 PM evening peak window, dramatically suppressing the "duck curve" spike that has historically driven price volatility for California commercial customers.
The Duck Curve Tamed — But Not Eliminated
The "duck curve" — the sharp evening ramp in net load that occurs as solar drops off — has been the defining challenge for CAISO grid operators since 2016. Battery storage deployments, accelerated by California's Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) and IRA investment tax credits, have now fundamentally altered the curve's shape.
In January 2026, batteries consistently discharged between 5 PM and 10 PM, averaging over 8,500 MW during the critical ramp window. This directly reduces the need for expensive gas peaker plants and lowers the marginal clearing price during evening hours.
CAISO Average Evening LMP Comparison
| Period | Avg. 6-9 PM LMP ($/MWh) | Battery Dispatch (MW) |
|---|---|---|
| January 2024 | $148 | ~4,200 MW |
| January 2025 | $112 | ~6,800 MW |
| January 2026 | $78 | ~9,100 MW avg. |
Source: KilowattLogic analysis based on CAISO OASIS data and EIA-860M battery capacity reports.
What This Means for California Commercial Buyers
For businesses on time-of-use (TOU) or real-time-priced contracts in CAISO territory, the evening LMP suppression is structurally significant. Evening peak rates for large commercial accounts have declined approximately 47% from their 2024 highs. However, two risks remain:
- Wildfire Season Volatility: Summer 2025 saw brief $450/MWh spikes during red-flag conditions when battery dispatch was constrained to preserve emergency reserves.
- Transmission Congestion: Northern-to-Southern California congestion during high-battery-discharge periods can create local price divergence of $30-$60/MWh.
For most mid-market California commercial accounts (500 kW to 5 MW), a fixed-price supply contract with a TOU hedge still provides more predictability than direct real-time market exposure, even with improved evening conditions.
Optimize Your California Energy Contract
Lower evening LMPs create a window for smarter procurement. A time-of-use supply analysis can identify savings of 8-14% for qualified CA accounts.